The 2024 NFL MVP Race
By: Michael Higgins
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The MVP race seems to be a tighter race than usual this year. There was about a month when the only correct answer was Lamar Jackson in terms of who will take home the hardware in 2024. However, others have made up some ground. I wanted to highlight my top candidates, who are all QBs, and then I want to take a look at some non-QBs that I think should receive recognition.
Lamar Jackson
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Lamar Jackson is a two-time MVP and making a case for his 3rd. Many would still consider him the leader in the race after Week 11. Jackson currently leads the league with a 117.3 passer rating. He has only thrown 3 interceptions all season while throwing for 25 touchdowns. One thing to note, Lamar has the slowest time to throw amongst starting QBs this season at 3.13 seconds. His success is not sustainable all season if he keeps holding onto the ball that long. He is the best quarterback in the league when it comes to improvising, but he needs to get the ball out quicker in order to make those improv plays more effective. Jackson put up a stinker against the Steelers as he and the Ravens dropped to 7-4 on the year. I know that wins are not a QB stat, but if the Ravens finish with 10 wins and do not win their division after many expected them to be the best team in football, the award might go elsewhere.
Josh Allen
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Allen lost the matchup to Jackson earlier in the season, and it was brutal. With that being said, Josh Allen has the least talented supporting cast that he has had since his rookie season, yet they are 9-2 for the first time since 1992. He also cut out the unnecessary mistakes. He is not forcing throws and instead takes what the defense provides him. According to Pro Football Focus, Josh Allen has 26 “big time throws” (PFF’s stat to measure high-difficulty and high-value passes), while no other quarterback has more than 21. So while he is not as aggressive, he is still making those impressive, big time throws when necessary. The blemish on Allen’s resume this year is the two game stretch against the Texans and the Ravens. While these losses are not solely on him, he was not the same version of himself. If he doesn’t win the award, it will be in large part to those games.
Justin Herbert
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Justin Herbert’s MVP candidacy has emerged through the middle of the season as the Chargers are 7-3 at the time of writing this and he is completing some of the highest difficulty of passes we have seen all year. Herbert started the year with an ankle injury, which very clearly impacted his production. Since getting healthy, Herbert has completely elevated the offense. He also has the worst supporting cast amongst characters. Throwing to guys like Will Dissly, Quentin Johnston, Ladd McConkey, and Josh Palmer. Johnston and McConkey could turn out to be great, but they’re young and unproven players. Throw on the tape and you’ll see Herbert throw the ball on a rope, layer it over defenders, and even use his legs more effectively than he did in years past.
Joe Burrow
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Joe Burrow is certainly worth mentioning in the MVP conversation because of how well he is playing. He leads the NFL in both touchdowns and passing yards. The problem is the Bengals are 4-7. Even if they win out, I find it hard to believe that he would win MVP. He is seemingly playing the best football of his career, which is saying something. He has one of, if not the best receiver in football to throw to in Jamarr Chase. While he wouldn’t be my pick for MVP, I will be the first to say that it feels unfair that Burrow may not win MVP because of how bad his defense is. The other side of that coin is that he may not have the volume stats to support his case if his defense didn’t force him into offensive shootouts every game.
Other Candidates
Derrick Henry: Henry is the most effective running back in the league and he has been for quite some time. He won’t win because he has Lamar Jackson on his team, but he should be considered
Trey Hendrickson: Hendrickson is on a historically bad defense, so he will not win. However, his stats are eye-popping. Through Week 11, he has 11.5 sacks and a career-high 5 pass deflections. Trey also has 12 TFLs on the season.
Chris Jones: Jones is on a 9-1 Chiefs team who are squeaking out wins in large part due to a disruptive defense. Jones has been the leader on that defense for years now. His stats will not jump off the page, but he is a game wrecker. He is getting double and even triple teams on a consistent basis.
TJ Watt: Watt has been making a case to the best career in the Watt family the last few years. 2024 is just adding to his claim. He has 7.5 sacks, 18 QB hits, and 12 TFLs. He is a difference maker on a defense-oriented Steelers team, who are unexpectedly 8-2.
